ArcaMax

MAGA Republicans are celebrating today. President Trump’s hand-picked candidate beat the establishment candidate in a runoff for Senate in Texas. But the road ahead is rocky.

And if I were Sen. John Cornyn today, I’d be pretty peeved.

Imagine it. You’re a popular incumbent senator who’s never lost an election in 23 years. Over those years you’ve enjoyed as much as a 70% approval rating among Republicans in Texas, your base.

You’re primaried by the state’s sitting, scandal-ridden attorney general, Ken Paxton, a man who’s been embroiled in legal battles for nearly a decade, has been impeached, and has faced allegations of infidelity, bribery, securities fraud, and abuse of power.

You manage to best him in March — but with neither candidate reaching a 50% threshold, it goes to a runoff.

Despite voting with Trump 100% of the time, and despite the urging of your Senate Republican colleagues, Trump endorses the other guy, and at the last minute.

And then the president’s pick wins in a blowout, effectively retiring you come November.

Such is life in Trump’s Republican Party, where years of good service and loyalty can evaporate overnight and his fickle whims and bruised ego can decide your fate on a dime.

Cornyn will join some other recent casualties of Trump’s capricious ire in Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Bill Cassidy, who could prove to be a fun thorn in Trump’s side until November now that he’s neutered their reelection bids. Along with Sens. Rand Paul and Thom Tillis, these beleaguered Republicans could effectively keep Trump from passing legislation, getting war and ballroom funding, and confirming judges and cabinet appointments.

But that’s not the only reason this gamble on Paxton could end up being a disaster for Republicans.

Democrats have been trying to turn this seat blue for years, and with the controversial Paxton rather than the safe Cornyn as the nominee, they have their best shot in a long time. Their nominee, James Talarico, is incredibly popular and has raised a ton of money since Trump turned him and Stephen Colbert into resistance heroes over their late-night interview back in February. Republicans will have to spend millions more than they would have had Cornyn been the nominee, in a midterm cycle that’s already proving more expensive than they’d like.

Talarico and Democrats, to be clear, know this and are thrilled Paxton got the nomination. They’ll spend their considerable capital painting Paxton as a corrupt and ethically-challenged deadbeat who could be indicted in the future, and exploiting the existing rift in the Republican Party created by this ugly primary.

Polls and prediction markets look promising for Democrats. Polymarket gave Talarico a 47% chance of beating Paxton after Paxton’s Tuesday night win, within striking distance of Paxton’s 54%.

And an April poll from the Texas Politics project at the University of Texas gave Talarico an eight-point edge over Paxton in a general election matchup.

If Talarico manages to pull off the unimaginable — the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas in more than 30 years — it will be because of Trump’s short-sighted meddling in what could have been a safe Republican seat had Cornyn been the nominee.

And while Trump’s recent track record of getting his guys elected is inarguably good, he occasionally gets it wrong. See the ghosts of Herschel Walker and Roy Moore in Georgia and Alabama, respectively.

Strength and prudence are not the same thing. Sure, Trump was powerful and influential enough to get the problematic Paxton over the line in his runoff. But was it a prudent pick? Only time will tell.

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(S.E. Cupp is the host of "S.E. Cupp Unfiltered" on CNN.)

©2026 S.E. Cupp. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.